China Walks the Tightrope as Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Intensifies
Mon, 03/21/2022 - 11:06am | By: USM Professor of History and Dale Center for the Study of War & Society Fellow Dr. Ken Swope
The entire world has been captivated by the events of the past few weeks whereby Russia,
under the direction of Vladimir Putin, has invaded the former Soviet Republic of Ukraine
amidst vague allegations of widespread Nazism and threats to pro-Russian citizens.
As the ripple effect continues to spread outwards, it is interesting to see how China,
Russia’s most prominent ally, is reacting to the crisis.
In the lead-up to the invasion, China itself was subjected to international scrutiny and diplomatic boycotts of the Winter Olympics owing to alleged human rights abuses committed against the Muslim Uighur minority in China’s western province of Xinjiang. At that time, Putin was notable for standing alone amongst world leaders in supporting Beijing and attending the games, albeit not without apparently dozing off during the lengthy opening ceremonies. Nonetheless, the mutual support between Putin and China’s Xi Jinping is interesting in both its historical antecedents and the implications for current and future events.
China Is Walking a Fine Line
As the Russian invasion commenced and the international community generally responded with outrage, many looked towards China to see its response. Beijing’s five main talking points concerning the invasion outlines its official stance. In summary these are:
- China firmly advocates abiding by the U.N. Charter and advocates territorial sovereignty
- On the other hand, Russia is justified to be concerned about the continued expansion of NATO, which China (and Russia) perceive as extending the “hegemony” of the West and thereby designed to isolate them.
- China believes that all parties should exercise restraint and protect property and human lives to avoid a humanitarian crisis.
- China supports direct dialogue and negotiation between Russia and Ukraine as soon as possible.
- The UN Security Council should be used to facilitate a diplomatic solution and ease tensions. (However, it is worth noting that China has consistently opposed UN resolutions over the years authorizing military and non-military steps to “restore international peace and security,” arguing that this infringes upon sovereignty rights.)
The Elephant in the Room Is Taiwan
As can be seen from the above points, China is walking a fine line, trying to show at least some support for its Russian ally while trying not to provoke the West and its allies too much. And, of course, the elephant in the room is the issue of Taiwan. Still officially known as the Republic of China, the self-governing island of Taiwan is considered by Beijing as a renegade province and Xi Jinping himself has vowed to “reclaim” the island by any means necessary no later than 2050. Indeed, many of Xi’s recent efforts to consolidate his own authority and reinforce the power of the Chinese Communist Party are perceived to be directed towards this end. So, it is understandable that China is very interested in following the course of events between Russia and Ukraine as a sort of preview of what China might expect in the future should it make its seemingly inevitable bid to bring Taiwan formally back into its orbit.
History of the Relationship Between China and Russia
As international sanctions and pressure against Russia ratchet up, it seems likely that it will turn to China for help, particularly in the financial and economic realms. However, it is worth noting that, while China and Russia have a longstanding relationship that exceeds that of China with other Western states, it has often been complex and shaped as much by expedience as genuine friendship and cooperation.
Russia was the first Western state to conclude modern style diplomatic treaties with the Chinese Qing Empire, in 1689 and 1722, respectively. In the nineteenth century, as the Russian Empire contended with Great Britain in the so-called “Great Game” in Central Asia, China faced a series of Muslim revolts in the lands which are now part of Xinjiang province. At one point, the Russians occupied part of China’s territory, ostensibly to keep the peace in the region. But when China, against all expectations, managed to defeat the Muslim rebels, in part by purchasing grain supplies from the Russians, Russia refused to abandon its gains, provoking a diplomatic crisis that eventually resulted in Chinese threats to fight Russia. In the end, a compromise was reached, most of the territory was returned and China formally created the province of Xinjiang in 1884.
This is important to keep in mind when considering China’s stance on sovereignty, referenced above. China’s notion of sovereignty is firmly entrenched in their perception of what happened to China in the era of high imperialism. The Qing Empire marked the apex of China’s territorial expanse and for the modern Peoples Republic of China, regaining control of these lands, which include Tibet and Taiwan, are essential to national identity. Therefore, China is keen on supporting similar claims elsewhere, shaky as they might be on historical grounds. And in this instance, certainly from the perspective of Beijing, Russia’s historical claims are not exactly shaky, even if one were to question the legitimacy of contemporary Russian rhetoric. Along these lines, the vast majority of Chinese mainlanders that I know, from all backgrounds, fully support the reintegration of Taiwan with mainland China.
Also, keep in mind that the USSR was one of the few nations to recognize the People’s Republic of China upon its creation in 1949 and aided Communist China in its early years. But after the death of Stalin, relations between China and the U.S.S.R. soured, paving the way for Nixon’s visit and the advent of “ping pong diplomacy.” In the post-Cold War world, the amazing rise of China has contrasted with the comparative decline of Russia.
A Relationship of Convenience
But global events have also served to bring China and Russia closer together, more out of convenience than perhaps anything else. Both China and Russia have found it useful to fall back on the other when criticized by the United States and its allies for human rights abuses or other issues. And stoked by state-run media portrayals, Putin has emerged as a very popular figure amongst ordinary, working-class Chinese. When I have traveled to China in recent years, many Chinese people I have spoken with have expressed their admiration for Putin, saying “He doesn’t get pushed around. Xi Jinping is too soft sometimes.” So, Beijing may be hedging its bets a bit by playing to this base to retain some loyalty amongst its own people with regards to the current situation in Russia.
Recent reports have stated that in the lead-up to the invasion the United States tried on several occasions, without success, to get China to intervene and dissuade Putin from his actions. These reports also suggest that China not only refused to intervene, but informed Russia of what the United States was up to.
So, I think it’s safe to say that Beijing is both trying to keep all its options open and watching closely to prepare for a scenario that it might find itself in over the next couple decades. Therefore, the rest of the world should also take note as the current crisis evolves.